Caleb Hanie is our quarterback

November 21, 2011 Leave a comment

If they haven’t been spoken already, we’ll hear those words from Lovie Smith at some point this week. Jay Cutler is reported to be undergoing surgery to repair a fractured thumb on Tuesday. Although there wasn’t a defining hit in the Chargers game where you saw it happen, we know he played hurt for some portion of the game (so can we finally put the issue of Jay Cutler’s toughness to bed?).

My initial reaction to Hanie is that’s fine by me. Hanie has proven about as much as he can that he is an able and workable backup QB. Looking at his line from last year’s NFC Championship game, (13/20, 153 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT), I’ll be the first to say that Hanie is no Aaron Rodgers, but the 65% completion percentage is somewhat encouraging. Since Hanie has a total of 14 pass attempts as an NFL quarterback (and none since October 10, 2010), I’m going back to his college days to look for any consistency.

At Colorado State, Hanie wasn’t even a starter until his junior season, so begrudgingly I’ll limit the evaluation to his last two years. In 24 starts, Hanie went 397/635 (62.5%) for 4882 yards, 29 TD, 27 INT. So we see the INT problem from the NFC Championship game wasn’t exactly a fluke, with a 4.25% INT rate (the NFL league average for 2011 is 2.98%). Even before adjusting from college to pro, we’re already looking at a higher than average interception rate. If there’s any effort to cut down on this rate in Hanie’s first start, it might take away the long ball from Mike Martz’s gameplan against the Radiers this week.

From an armchair quarterback perspective, it seems keen for the Bears to want to try to get the ball in the hand of their speed guys (Devin Hester and Johnny Knox) in open space on some quick screens. I’ve seem far less of those failed bubble screens this year than in the previous two years that Jay Cutler has been under center. I do believe the Raiders are going to make Martz beat them with Hanie. Do-it-all running back Matt Forte will no doubt become Raiders DC Chuck Bresnahan chief focus in his gameplan, and I wouldn’t disagree with that.

From a betting perspective, the sportsbooks seems to value Jay Cutler at more than 12 points against the Raiders. Under normal circumstances according to various power ratings, the Bears should be favored by 8 points. As it stands in most books I’ve seen, Oakland is favored between 4 1/2 or 5 1/2 points. Call me a homer, but taking those points, and I’m calling for a Bears win outright.

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Quick post: The Lance Briggs Situation

September 2, 2011 Leave a comment

Inspired by AITA on Aerys Sports, here’s my quick take on the Lance Briggs contract situation.

Three years ago, he tested the open market as an unrestricted free agent. There should be no argument against the fact that the Bears paid him fair market value. In my opinion, this wouldn’t even be an issue if Briggs’ agent wasn’t that scumbag Drew Rosenhaus. Also, I don’t really think Briggs has out-performed the contract. If he came back in two years with two more Pro Bowls under his belt and only ONE year left, then I could see it. But this is simply ridiculous.

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>NFL Week 9 Power Rankings

November 10, 2009 Leave a comment

>Nothing much to say, I’ll just give the rankings. This week was tougher, because I had to move team that were on a bye, which is against my style.

Notes:
  • The top 5 stayed the same, just the Steelers and Pats flipped 4 and 5.
  • Bucs off the schnide and move all of one spot up to 30.
  • My Bears fall once again from 15 to 17
  • I continue to wonder how high the Bengals can go (currently 6, from 9 last week)
  • Is this the Chargers team everyone was expecting in the preseason (12 up from 17)
  • Giants (15) would win against the Jets (16) in the Mediocre New York Teams Bowl
  • Titans (24) now 2-0 with Vince Young at starter. They’ll move up a bit more if a win comes against Buffalo (25) next week
  • New Toilet Bowl front-runners: Lions (31) vs. Browns (32)

Rank

Team

Last Week

1

Saints (8-0)

1

2

Colts (8-0)

2

3

Steelers (6-2)

3

4

Patriots (6-2)

5

5

Vikings (7-1)

4

6

Bengals (6-2)

9

7

Broncos (6-2)

6

8

Falcons (5-3)

8

9

Cowboys (6-2)

13

10

Eagles (5-3)

7

11

Texans (5-4)

11

12

Chargers (5-3)

17

13

Cardinals (5-3)

16

14

Ravens (4-4)

10

15

Giants (5-4)

12

16

Jets (4-4)

18

17

Bears (4-4)

15

18

49ers (3-5)

14

19

Dolphins (3-5)

20

20

Packers (4-4)

19

21

Panthers (3-5)

21

22

Jaguars (4-4)

24

23

Seahawks (3-5)

23

24

Titans (2-6)

26

25

Bills (3-5)

22

26

Redskins (2-5)

25

27

Raiders (2-6)

28

28

Chiefs (1-7)

27

29

Rams (1-7)

29

30

Buccaneers (1-7)

31

31

Lions (1-7)

30

32

Browns (1-7)

32

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>2009: Year of the Offense (NFL Power Rankings Week 8)

November 4, 2009 Leave a comment

>As I watched the Saints beat the Falcons 35-27 on this past weeks MNF, I couldn’t help think of 2008 Oklahoma football. The whole attitude of “We’re gonna put up a ton of points, try to keep up.” And not only that, but the fact that their defense forced 3 interceptions out of the usually efficient Matt Ryan. At the halfway point of the regular season, the Saints are, at least in my opinion, the definite front-runner for the Super Bowl.

On the other end of the ranking, the Rams (29 up from 32)finally got off the schnide, beating the almost equally bad Lions 17-10. So at least in terms of wins and losses, the ’09 Rams are better than the ’08 0-16 Lions. But they’re still the Rams. Looking at their schedule, there’s pretty much only one winnable game left (home vs. Seattle), so I would say you could pencil them in for a 2-14 season.

The Browns (32 down from 29) on the other hand, have an even easier remaining schedule than the Rams, but have about an equal chance of going 2-14. Of eight games remaining, four of them are against teams ranked 24th or below according to this weeks power rankings (@Det, @KC, v.Oak, v.Jax). Although I couldn’t tell you which one it would come from (my guess would be the home against Oakland game), but can’t be more than one win coming from these four. There offense can only be described as anemic. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan called a pretty good game against the Bears, allowing only 2 touchdowns in 5 red zone trips.

The Texans (11 up from 18 last week) are quietly 5-3 behind the 7-0 Colts, and if the season ended today, would have their first ever playoff appearance. It’s really the definition of under the radar, with all the attention on Indy and Peyton Manning’s MVP-type season. Matt Schaub is passing at a 66.4% clip, for 16 TD, 7 INT, and a 100.5 rating. Who is this 100.5 rating ahead of? Tom Brady (99.9), Tony Romo (96.8), Carson Palmer (89.2), and Eli Manning (86.4). I’m not sure Houston will be able to ride Schaub’s arm all season, with a run game only posting 92.5 yards per game (28th in the NFL), but it will be interesting to watch.

The rest of the rankings:


Rank

Team

Last Week

1

Saints (7-0)

1

2

Colts (7-0)

2

3

Steelers (5-2)

4

4

Vikings (7-1)

5

5

Patriots (5-2)

6

6

Broncos (6-1)

3

7

Eagles (5-2)

10

8

Falcons (4-3)

7

9

Bengals (5-2)

8

10

Ravens (4-3)

12

11

Texans (5-3)

18

12

Giants (5-3)

9

13

Cowboys (5-2)

15

14

49ers (3-4)

14

15

Bears (4-3)

19

16

Cardinals (4-3)

11

17

Chargers (4-3)

17

18

Jets (4-4)

13

19

Packers (4-3)

16

20

Dolphins (3-4)

20

21

Panthers (3-4)

24

22

Bills (3-5)

21

23

Seahawks (2-5)

22

24

Jaguars (3-4)

23

25

Redskins (2-5)

25

26

Titans (1-6)

30

27

Chiefs (1-6)

27

28

Raiders (2-6)

26

29

Rams (1-7)

32

30

Lions (1-6)

28

31

Buccaneers (0-7)

31

32

Browns (1-7)

29

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>Boy are the bad teams bad….NFL Power Rankings Week 7

October 27, 2009 Leave a comment

>The biggest thing I got from Week 7 was that the bad teams are SOOO bad. Teams #26-32 (Lions and Titans on a bye) went a combined 0-6, and were out scored 210-40. 210-40!!! That’s more than 4 touchdowns a game. Forget win-loss records, I really wonder how bad these teams are against the spread. Because not only are they losing, they are losing BIG and I really don’t see any improvement coming. Can you seriously look at any of these teams and see more than maybe 4 wins?

There are enough incredibly bad teams to have a playoff. Losing teams advance and we can call the last game the Toilet Bowl. In a committee of two, I came up with 2 possible venues: a U.S. Naval aircraft carrier in the Middle East; or Barrow, AK, the northernmost point in the United States.
On the more positive end, I keep New Orleans in the top spot, because (a) they put up 43 point in the last 30:05 of the game, after being down 24-3, and (b) Indy did win big, but it’s against the Rams, and the Rams are just the Rams. Biggest jump goes to Pittsburgh from #8 to #4 after putting the first loss on Minnesota, who dropped from #4 to #5.

Rank

Week 7

Last Week

1

Saints (6-0)

1

2

Colts (6-0)

2

3

Broncos (6-0)

3

4

Steelers (5-2)

8

5

Vikings (6-1)

4

6

Patriots (5-2)

7

7

Falcons (4-2)

6

8

Bengals (5-2)

11

9

Giants (5-2)

5

10

Eagles (4-2)

12

11

Cardinals (4-2)

13

12

Ravens (3-3)

10

13

Jets (4-3)

16

14

49ers (3-3)

9

15

Cowboys (4-2)

15

16

Packers (4-2)

19

17

Chargers (3-3)

20

18

Texans (4-3)

17

19

Bears (3-3)

14

20

Dolphins (2-4)

17

21

Bills (3-4)

24

22

Seahawks (2-4)

22

23

Jaguars (3-3)

23

24

Panthers (2-4)

21

25

Redskins (2-5)

26

26

Raiders (2-5)

25

27

Chiefs (1-6)

27

28

Lions (1-6)

29

29

Browns (1-6)

28

30

Titans (0-6)

30

31

Buccaneers (0-7)

31

32

Rams (0-7)

32

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>So winning hinges ENTIRELY on Cutler

October 19, 2009 1 Comment

>The Falcons made stopping Forte look way too easy. So the Bears had to go to almost exclusively to the pass, and Cutler, although throwing for 300 yards, couldn’t come up with the big play. Twice in the red zone he threw and interception, both after the Bears had driven down the length of the field. Not only do you NOT score, but it’s really deflating for the team. After one of the turnovers, Matt Ryan drove right back down the field for the go-ahead score.

More proof that Cutler needs to play well for a Bears win:
In wins: 624 yds, 71 completion pct, 7 TD, 1 INT, 109.8 passer rating
In losses: 577 yds, 56 completion pct, 3 TD, 6 INT, 59.9 passer rating
What we need in a statement win in Cincy next week. Something to say hey, we deserve to be in the top tier of the NFL. The Bengals actually have a losing record at home this season at 1-2, coming off a 28-17 loss to the Texans. If Matt Schaub can put up nearly 400 passing yards and 4 TD’s, you would think the Cutler-Knox-Hester combination would be able to put up a handful of scores (with Forte getting a couple too for my fantasy team).
I heard that Cutler, over the last 2 years, has thrown 7 red zone INT’s, tops in the NFL. That can’t happen if Chicago is going to be a playoff team. We’re looking up at Minnesota, just about knowing that they are a better football team. I just really hope we can get it together by week 12 when Chicago travels to the Hump Dome.

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>Time to MAYBE think the Broncos are legit? & NFL Power Rankings

October 13, 2009 Leave a comment

>For the past 3 weeks, I’ve been saying the Broncos are the worst 3-0, 4-0, and now 5-0 team of all time, mostly because of the fluke Stokley play in Week 1. And the fact their defense was torrid….last year. But then I think….hey maybe Kyle Orton wasn’t that bad of a QB as I thought. He’s got very respectable stats through Week 5 (104-for-165, 1236 yds, 7 TD, 1 INT, 97.4 rating).

He’s finally got the weapons in Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and Stokley to give San Diego a run for their money in the AFC West. They’re already 2 1/2 games ahead with SD on the bye, but a Week 6 MNF matchup with them will be a good litmus test for both teams.
I’m not QUITE ready to hop on the Broncos-are-legit bandwagon yet, but since my fantasy football team was the Kyle Orton Bandwagon, I guess I’ve already got a start.
NFL Power Rankings

Rank

Team

1

Saints (4-0)

2

Colts (5-0)

3

Giants (5-0)

4

Vikings (5-0)

5

Broncos (5-0)

6

Eagles (3-1)

7

Falcons (3-1)

8

Bears (3-1)

9

Jets (3-2)

10

Bengals (4-1)

11

Steelers (3-2)

12

Patriots (3-2)

13

49ers (3-2)

14

Ravens (3-2)

15

Chargers (2-2)

16

Dallas (3-2)

17

Cardinals (2-2)

18

Dolphins (2-3)

19

Packers (2-2)

20

Texans (2-3)

21

Seahawks (2-3)

22

Redskins (1-3)

23

Jaguars (2-3)

24

Panthers (1-3)

25

Titans (0-5)

26

Bills (1-4)

27

Lions (1-4)

28

Browns (1-4)

29

Raiders (1-4)

30

Chiefs (0-5)

31

Buccaneers (0-5)

32

Rams (0-5)

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>Hits and Misses of the Super Bowl

February 1, 2009 Leave a comment

>1st quarter:

  • Hit: Roethlisberger to Ward on the first drive for a 38-yard gain. Big Ben needed to get off to a good start to get rid of the nerves from his bad game (albeit in a win) in SB XL. Ward needed a good play to get that knee going
  • Hit: Bud Light commercial where they throw a guy out the window for trying to get the budget by getting rid of Bud Light in meetings. F-ing hilarious.
  • Miss: 1st Audi car commercial. C’mon, these things are supposed to pique my interest and/or be funny. This did neither.
  • Miss: Steelers not getting a TD on the opening drive. They better hope the defense can make a statement. EDIT: statement made
  • Hit: Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie with a TD-saving pass deflection. If that’s made this game would have been headed for a blowout (and be terribly uninteresting)
  • Miss: Pitt using the wildcat formation. If you’re gonna stunt, do something that almost no one would be coming….which would never happen with the Steelers being the Steelers
  • Miss: Ads for movies that come out in May. I know Angels and Demons is gonna be a good movie. You don’t have to spend $3 million telling me 3 1/2 months ahead of time.

2nd quarter

  • Hit: GoDaddy.com Danica Patrick commercial. I can always count on you for a racy Super Bowl commercial.
  • Miss: cars.com commercial. Wow, way to completely rip off the Dos Equis “The Most Interesting Man in the World” commercial
  • Miss: John Madden calling a Steven Breaston punt return. Will he ever learn to call something that isn’t COMPLETELY obvious?
  • Hit: eTrade baby commercial. I can’t remember if these made their debut in a Super Bowl, but I can’t remember one that wasn’t funny. I’m waiting for the golf one they showed in the pregame
  • Hit/Miss: Larry Fitz making his first catch just before halftime. Hit for the Steelers for limiting him, miss for the Cards because they let that happen
  • Hit: James Harrison’s 100-yard interception return for a TD. THIS is why he got some MVP votes. Definitely makes it obvious who the MVP of the game is so far.

Halftime Show

  • I wasn’t really impressed. Nothing that really hasn’t been done before. Glow sticks for the crowd, semi-elaborate fireworks. Maybe it’s because I’m not the biggest Springsteen fan, but I wasn’t really into the “story-telling.” It just seemed like he was stroking his own ego. You can tell that at least the music is pre-recorded, but I’m thinking he’s actually singing.
  • Hit: Toyota Tundra fire commercial. That’s just f-ing awesome. You don’t need to say any more.
  • Hit: NBC’s LMAO commercial. Great concept for a promo to your Thursday night lineup. Especially at the end where one chick says she’s had her butt reattached 6 times and a chick behind her shows 7 fingers.
  • Hit: Miller High Life’s one second commercial. Wow, I didn’t think they would actually do it, and I hope as much people got it as I think. Best use of $100,000 (based on $3 mil for a 30-second spot) ever.

3rd Quarter

  • Miss: Budweiser Clydesdales commercials. It’s probably because it was hard to beat the dalmation “Rocky” commercial from last year, but all of them so far haven’t really been impressive. Maybe they’re saving the best for last?
  • Miss: Stupid roughing the passer penalty on a third down by the Cards’ Dansby. If there was a breaking point after the Harrison INT, this was it.
  • Hit: The Cards’ holding Pitt to a FG and keep it a 2-possession game….hold on….make that a Miss: HOW DO YOU MAKE THAT STUPID A PENALTY?! That makes 3 penalties for 35 yards just on this drive.
  • BIG hit: Holding Pitt to a FG again. Wow. If Whisenhunt can’t motivate his offense after this, Arizona has zip chance. Although the biggest comeback in a Super Bowl is 10 points and this makes it 20-7.
  • Semi-hit: Finally a decent sack on Big Ben. With the Zona offense finally wake up?
  • Hit: Remake of the ’80s Mean Joe Greene Coke commercial with Troy Polamalu and Coke Zero. I’m definitely not a fan of the product, but I’ll give credit where it’s due.

4th Quarter

  • Hit: Arizona finally opening up their playbook and getting to what they do best: pass. We have ourselves a ball game!
  • Hit: Pepsruber!!!
  • Miss: Holding in the END ZONE?! I guess now it’s not how many penalties you have, but where and when you have them. But it might work, because the Cards still need a TD, and the Steelers aren’t punting from their end zone.
  • Hit: LARRY FITZ, you are RIDICULOUS!
  • Hit/Miss: Ok, so I have my money on the Steelers -7. If they don’t get it I really hope the Cards win
  • Hit: Wow, did we just witness The Catch II?! Santonio Holmes is MVP if they hold on
  • Miss: That’s kinda anti-climactic if you ask me. Why wouldn’t you review that fumble?

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>Bob’s Official SB XLIII pick

February 1, 2009 Leave a comment

>Steelers. I won’t drag it out. I LOVE the story of the Cardinals, how Kurt Warner made a comeback all the way to an MVP candidacy and a shot at a Super Bowl with a second team, after toiling in New York for a year. But smart money just says Pittsburgh.

Sure, Arizona’s QB and top 2 receiving threats are starters for the Pro Bowl, Pitt’s got 2 guys on defense that actually got votes for MVP. That doesn’t happen. MVP nowadays is a de facto offensive player of the year. They can pressure Warner rushing just 3 or 4. They also run a 3-4 defense, with a ton of schemes and tricks. They could show blitz, then back off. They have D-ends that are fast enough to drop back in the flat. They runs stunts that create holes for the linebackers.

I thought that if it turns into a shootout, I figured Arizona would win. Ben Roethlisberger wouldn’t be able to run an efficient enough offense to keep up with the Warner-Fitzgerald-Boldin combo. But after mulling it over for a few days, I just couldn’t see that happening. Pittsburgh will turn this into a smashmouth, hard hitting football game.

Give me one bet, and I’ll take the Steelers and give the seven points. But if you give me options, I would go with 2 teasers: Arizona +7 and the Over (47); and Pittsburgh -7 and the Under.

Miscellaneous thoughts a tidbits:

  • Larry Fitz has got some REALLY nice teeth.
  • On the prop bet of the over under of on Jennifer Hudson’s National Anthem, gimme the under
  • Bruce Springsteen would not have been my first choice for the half time show
  • Looking forward more to the commercials than the halftime show
  • I will actually be at work during the Super Bowl, but at least they have HDTVs
  • The official pick for the final: Pittsburgh 23, Arizona 13

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>It all went our way, and we STILL blew it

December 28, 2008 Leave a comment

>With a 31-24 loss at the hand of the Houston Texans, the Bears put the cap on a 9-7 season, and really didn’t look like a playoff team out there. Most of the miracle to get the Bears into the playoffs had already happened, with the following happening in Week 16:

  • Dallas losing to Baltimore 33-24, becoming 9-6
  • Tampa Bay losing to San Diego 41-24, becoming 9-6
  • Minnesota losing to Atlanta 24-17, becoming 9-6
  • The Bears winning the Monday Night Football finale against the Packers, becoming (you guessed it!) 9-6

I’ll give you that the Ravens might be a better team than the Cowboys, but the Bolts (currently 7-8) over the Bucs IN Tampa Bay?! And the Vikes couldn’t even protect their own Dome against a Falcons team that had already locked up a playoff spot.

So going into Week 17, all the Bears needed was a win and:

  • A loss by Minnesota (to NYG) for the NFC North
  • Losses by Tampa (to Oak) and Dallas (to Phi) for a Wild Card spot

OK, so the Vikings DID win against the Giants, but in ANOTHER game in Tampa, the Bucs lay an egg and lose to the 5-11 RAIDERS 31-24. The path was set! The door was open!! All the Bears had to do was go into a Reliant Stadium that was actually heavily speckled with Bears fans and beat the 7-8 Texans. Could they do it? NO. And what do they do? Give up 31 goddamn points. So much for a vaunted defense.

And since this was written before the Dallas-Philly game, I’m gonna go out on a limb and say Philly wins, which would have given the Bears the 6th wild card spot.

Oh well…I guess Illini Basketball is on the upswing. They should get into the Top 25 after that win against Mizzou.

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